Saudi Arabia’s crude exports recovered in April, rising to around 3.96 million barrels per day, from 3.64 million bpd in March, as delayed cargoes were cleared despite continuing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, according to tanker-tracking data reported by Bloomberg via Asharq. The rebound brought Saudi shipments closer to pre-crisis levels, but still reflected a partial recovery rather than full normalisation.
The improvement was supported by the release of roughly 30 million barrels of delayed March cargoes, while around 14 million barrels from February reportedly remained stuck in the Gulf. Six tankers carrying Saudi crude were also able to transit Hormuz in April, signalling a limited easing in maritime flows, though logistical and security constraints continue to weigh on regional supply.
Brent crude remained highly sensitive to these developments, trading around $108.17 per barrel on May 1, down about 2% on the day, but still sharply higher year-on-year amid the persistent Gulf risk premium. Market data showed Brent still up more than 70% from a year earlier, reflecting how security risks around Hormuz continue to support prices even when daily trading shows corrections.
The recovery in Saudi exports comes as OPEC+ faces a more complicated production-management environment. Reuters reported that seven key members were preparing another modest quota increase of around 188,000 bpd for June, despite Hormuz-related disruption and reduced actual export capacity. The planned increase is therefore more a policy signal than an immediate physical supply expansion.
The UAE’s reported withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ adds a structural challenge to the group’s cohesion. Reuters described the move as a blow to the producers’ alliance, while Al Jazeera reported that Abu Dhabi’s exit reflects its desire for greater production flexibility beyond quota constraints. This weakens OPEC+ discipline at a time when Saudi Arabia is trying to balance higher prices, export disruption, and market-management credibility.
Saudi Arabia’s pricing strategy toward Asia also reflects this tension. Bloomberg reported earlier in April that Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of flagship Arab Light crude for May deliveries to Asia to a record $19.50 per barrel premium over the regional benchmark, as war and Hormuz risks tightened market conditions. The higher premium suggests Riyadh is monetising scarcity while still protecting its core Asian customer base.
As The Middle East Observer notes, the Saudi export rebound should be read less as a return to normal supply conditions and more as a tactical recovery driven by backlog clearance, Red Sea routing, and selective Hormuz access. With Brent still carrying a geopolitical premium, OPEC+ cohesion weakened by the UAE’s exit, and Asian buyers facing elevated Saudi official prices, the oil market remains defined by fragile supply restoration rather than genuine stability.
