WASHINGTON — United States gasoline prices climbed to near-record seasonal highs this week as continued instability linked to the US-Iran conflict intensified pressure on global energy markets and fuel supply chains, raising fresh political and inflationary concerns across the American economy.
According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average retail price for regular unleaded gasoline rose to $4.54 per gallon, exceeding $4.50 for the first time since July 2022 and approaching the all-time record of $5.01 reached in June that year.
On a seasonal basis, analysts say current gasoline prices are the highest ever recorded for this period of the year.
The sharp increase comes amid ongoing volatility in global oil markets following months of military escalation and shipping disruptions tied to the confrontation involving Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping corridors.
Fuel prices rose most sharply in California, where average gasoline prices surpassed $6 per gallon, while several Midwestern states approached the $5 threshold as refinery costs and supply pressures intensified.
Industry analysts warned that prolonged fuel inflation could increase economic pressure on households, weaken consumer confidence, and complicate the inflation outlook for the Federal Reserve.
The political implications are also growing. Donald Trump had repeatedly pledged that fuel prices would decline following the end of hostilities with Iran, yet sustained elevated prices now risk becoming a sensitive political issue ahead of November’s US midterm elections.
Energy-market analysts noted that gasoline prices briefly eased in April following announcements related to temporary de-escalation efforts between Washington and Tehran. However, prices never returned below the psychologically important $4-per-gallon level after first crossing it in March.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, stated that the $5-per-gallon level historically represents a “shock point” at which American fuel demand typically begins to weaken, although current consumption levels remain relatively resilient.
At the same time, US gasoline inventories have fallen to their lowest seasonal levels since 2014, while analysts at Morgan Stanley warned of tighter fuel-market conditions heading into the summer driving season.
Futures prices for benchmark gasoline contracts also surged in late April to their highest levels since June 2022, reflecting continued uncertainty surrounding Middle Eastern energy flows and global refining capacity.
As The Middle East Observer notes, the latest surge in American fuel prices highlights how geopolitical tensions in the Gulf are increasingly shaping not only global energy markets, but also inflation expectations, consumer confidence, and political calculations throughout the broader American economy.
