Morocco could expand its economy by up to 20% by 2035 if it accelerates structural reforms to boost competition, private investment, and labour market inclusion, according to recent reports by the World Bank cited by Asharq Business.
The findings, presented in Rabat, suggest that integrating women and youth into the formal economy and strengthening private sector participation could significantly improve growth outcomes. Under this scenario, Morocco could generate 1.7 million additional jobs over the next decade and 2.5 million by 2050, alongside a 15% increase in real wages.
Official data from Morocco’s High Commission for Planning places GDP at around $160 billion in 2024, with growth estimated at roughly 5%. The reform scenario indicates average growth could rise to 5.4% over the long term.
Despite public investment reaching nearly 30% of GDP, job creation has lagged, with an annual shortfall of around 370,000 jobs since 2020. The World Bank attributes this to a growth model driven largely by capital accumulation, with limited productivity gains and a strong public sector presence that constrains private sector dynamism.
Reforms focused on regulatory simplification, digitalisation of licensing, improved access to land and green energy, and stronger standards frameworks are seen as key to unlocking private investment.
The reports identify solar energy, low-carbon textiles, argan-based cosmetics, and marine aquaculture as priority sectors. Together, these could attract up to $7.4 billion in private investment and generate more than 166,000 jobs over the next five to ten years.
While the reform agenda has been broadly welcomed, local economists and analysts—reflected in national economic media and institutional commentary—caution that similar strategies in the past have delivered investment-led growth without sufficient job creation. They point to structural imbalances where high public investment has not translated into adequate employment gains, alongside constraints on small and medium-sized enterprises and weak productivity growth.
As The Middle East Observer notes, the core challenge is not only accelerating reforms, but ensuring they translate into inclusive, employment-generating growth rather than primarily capital-driven expansion. While the World Bank’s projections point to significant upside, local economists stress that outcomes will hinge on addressing structural constraints—particularly productivity gaps, private sector competitiveness, and labour market integration.
The scale of potential gains therefore reflects both opportunity and execution risk: sustained growth will depend on the pace and depth of reform implementation, as well as the ability to convert investment into tangible job creation and broader economic participation.
