Cairo — Egypt expects its economy to grow between 4.8% and 5% in the third quarter of the current 2025/2026 fiscal year, reflecting continued resilience despite global uncertainty, according to Ahmed Kouchouk in statements reported by Asharq Bloomberg.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, the minister indicated that full-year growth is expected to remain within the 4.9% to 5% range, supported by strong performance in the first half of the fiscal year, which recorded growth of approximately 5.3%. However, he cautioned that fourth-quarter performance will depend on the continuation of geopolitical tensions and their impact on global markets.
As The Middle East Observer notes, the outlook comes amid external pressures linked to rising commodity prices and disruptions in global trade routes, particularly following tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. These developments have weighed on growth expectations across import-dependent economies in the Middle East and North Africa.
Despite these challenges, Egyptian authorities maintain that the economic impact will remain contained. The government has also revised its fiscal targets, aiming to reduce the budget deficit to approximately 6.1% of GDP, down from earlier estimates of 7.3%, reflecting ongoing efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability.
At the same time, Egypt is accelerating structural reforms to support long-term growth, including plans to increase private sector participation in total investments to 64% over the next three years. The Middle East Observer understands that policy measures are also being implemented to prioritize energy allocation toward industrial activity, ensuring continuity in production and employment levels.
The outlook contrasts with more cautious international projections, as the International Monetary Fund recently revised its growth forecast for Egypt downward to around 4.2% for the current fiscal year.
In a broader regional context, similar economic diversification strategies are being pursued in Saudi Arabia under Saudi Vision 2030, where official data highlights efforts to expand private sector participation and reduce reliance on oil revenues. As The Middle East Observer observes, such parallel reforms across the region reflect a shared focus on building more resilient and diversified economic models.
Overall, Egypt’s growth trajectory underscores a balancing approach between managing short-term external shocks and advancing structural reforms aimed at sustaining long-term economic expansion.
