Cairo — Moody’s Ratings has affirmed Egypt’s sovereign credit rating at Caa1 for both foreign and local currency, maintaining a Positive Outlook, reflecting cautious confidence in the country’s ongoing economic reform program.
The agency cited continued primary fiscal surpluses since FY2023/24 and tight monetary policy by the Central Bank of Egypt as key factors supporting the rating. These measures have contributed to a decline in inflation, which eased to around 13.4% in early 2026, down sharply from significantly higher levels in 2024.
Moody’s expects Egypt to sustain primary surpluses of about 4% of GDP in the coming years, supported by fiscal reforms, including broadening the tax base and improving revenue collection.
However, the agency warned that high public debt—above 80% of GDP—and large financing needs continue to constrain Egypt’s credit profile, leaving it exposed to external risks.
The Positive Outlook indicates potential for improvement if reforms continue and macroeconomic stability is further strengthened.
