China’s exports rebounded strongly in November, rising 5.9% year-on-year to USD 330.3 billion, according to new data released by China’s General Administration of Customs. The increase marks a notable recovery from October’s 1.1% contraction and exceeded most analyst expectations, signaling renewed momentum in the world’s second-largest exporter as global demand improves ahead of year-end.
The rebound, however, contrasted sharply with shipments to the United States, which plunged nearly 29% from a year earlier—marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines. Economists attribute the drop to ongoing US efforts to diversify supply chains, maintain certain tariffs, and limit dependence on Chinese industrial inputs.
Despite the sharp fall in US-bound trade, China’s exports to Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union rose significantly, underscoring a continued shift in China’s global trade footprint. Rising demand for electric vehicles, machinery, solar equipment, and consumer electronics helped offset weakening orders from the US.
Customs data also showed that China’s trade surplus for the first eleven months of the year reached a record USD 1.08 trillion, surpassing last year’s full-year surplus of USD 992 billion.
Imports also showed modest improvement, rising 1.9% to USD 218.6 billion in November—slightly above October’s growth—despite persistent weakness in China’s property sector and soft consumer confidence.
Economists caution that early signs of recovery should be treated with care. China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month in November, suggesting that external demand has not fully stabilized. While analysts expect stronger exports in early 2026, they note that global trade risks—including geopolitical tensions, industrial policy competition, and supply-chain realignments—remain substantial.
Chinese leaders, who met this week to outline economic priorities for 2026, reaffirmed their focus on advanced manufacturing and “pursuing progress while ensuring stability.”
Looking ahead, several major financial institutions—including Morgan Stanley—forecast that China could continue gaining global export market share through 2030, driven by competitiveness in key industries such as electric vehicles, robotics, and battery technologies. But others warn that temporary improvements may not signal a long-term shift, given ongoing uncertainties in China–US relations and broader global trade headwinds.
