Revenues from the Suez Canal Authority are expected to strengthen in the second half of 2026, supported by a gradual normalization of shipping traffic through the canal after nearly two years of disruption linked to Red Sea security tensions. The outlook was outlined by SCA Chairman Ossama Rabiee during a briefing with President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, according to official statements.
Rabiee said the canal recorded a relative improvement in navigation traffic during the second half of 2025, marking the start of a partial recovery. This included the gradual return of large container vessels, as stability began to improve in the Red Sea region following prolonged disruptions that had forced many global carriers to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
Before the crisis, the Suez Canal was operating at record levels. In 2023, annual revenues reached about $9.4 billion, reflecting strong global trade flows. That trajectory reversed sharply after October 2023, when attacks on commercial shipping near the Bab al-Mandab Strait prompted major shipping lines to reroute vessels away from the canal. The diversion led to steep traffic declines and revenue losses estimated at nearly $7 billion over the subsequent period.
Throughout 2024, transits remained significantly below historical averages as higher insurance costs and security concerns reshaped global shipping routes. Egypt’s canal income—one of the country’s key sources of foreign currency—came under sustained pressure.
Conditions began to improve in mid-to-late 2025, when regional tensions eased and the SCA introduced pricing incentives and operational flexibility to restore competitiveness. According to industry and media reports, canal revenues rose by roughly 14 percent year-on-year in parts of the second half of 2025, coinciding with the cautious return of container ships and energy cargoes.
Rabiee attributed the recovery to efforts to limit the negative impact of disruptions, as well as to the completion of development works in the southern sector of the canal, which enhanced safety margins and transit efficiency.
Looking ahead, SCA projections and industry forecasts suggest revenues could approach $8 billion in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with further improvement expected in H2 2026 if stability in the Red Sea is sustained. Major carriers have begun to signal renewed confidence, with phased resumptions of Asia–Europe services via the Suez route.
While traffic levels remain below pre-crisis norms, analysts view these moves as leading indicators of broader normalization. A full return to earlier volumes, however, will depend on lasting security guarantees and insurance conditions acceptable to shipowners.
Beyond traffic recovery, President El-Sisi reviewed progress on a broader maritime development agenda. This includes the South Red Sea shipyard, expansion of the SCA’s auxiliary fleet, and investments in tugboats, dredgers, and fishing vessels. Rabiee confirmed the completion of several Azm-class tugboats and ongoing construction of deep-sea fishing vessels and river buses.
El-Sisi stressed the need to continue upgrading the canal’s navigation channel, infrastructure, and services to safeguard its strategic role in global trade, which historically accounts for around 10–12 percent of world maritime commerce.
The Suez Canal’s recovery trajectory carries implications well beyond Egypt. A sustained return of shipping through the canal could shorten Asia–Europe transit times by up to two weeks compared with the Cape route, easing freight costs and pressure on global supply chains. For Egypt, renewed revenue growth would bolster foreign currency inflows at a critical time for macroeconomic stabilization.
