BEIJING — China has unveiled the outline of its 15th Five-Year Plan, setting policy priorities for the country’s economic development, energy security and industrial transformation over the coming years, with significant implications for global commodity markets.
The framework, presented during the annual session of the National People’s Congress, highlights Beijing’s determination to strengthen control over critical minerals, expand clean-energy infrastructure and maintain stable supplies of oil, gas and coal as the world’s second-largest economy recalibrates its industrial strategy.
For the first time, China explicitly emphasised its global leadership in rare earth elements, pledging to strengthen technological capabilities and upgrade the domestic industry. The country currently accounts for roughly 60–70 per cent of global rare-earth production and an even larger share of processing capacity, making these minerals a strategic asset in advanced manufacturing and defence supply chains.
Authorities also indicated plans to improve the export-control framework governing critical minerals — a system that has already affected global supply chains for materials essential to electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies and electronics.
Beyond rare earths, Beijing’s continued investment in power grid expansion, renewable energy deployment and electrification is expected to sustain demand for industrial metals such as copper and aluminium. China remains the world’s largest consumer of both metals and relies heavily on imported raw materials, including iron ore and copper concentrate. The plan therefore calls for expanded domestic exploration and mining to strengthen supply security.
The government reaffirmed its intention to address overcapacity in heavy industry, including steelmaking, petrochemicals and copper smelting. Although the plan did not introduce explicit production-cut targets, it includes energy-efficiency objectives aimed at accelerating structural adjustments in carbon-intensive sectors.
Analysts note that overcapacity has been a persistent challenge for China’s industrial base, often contributing to price volatility in global commodity markets.
In climate policy, Beijing set a target to reduce carbon intensity — emissions per unit of economic output — by around 17 per cent during the planning period. While this reflects continued progress toward China’s long-term climate goals, it is slightly lower than the previous five-year target of 18 per cent. Officials also reiterated plans to increase the share of non-fossil fuels to approximately 25 percent of total energy consumption by 2030, driven by expansion in solar, wind and nuclear power generation. At the same time, the government signalled a pragmatic approach to energy security. Coal consumption is expected to peak within the next five years, although the plan stopped short of committing to a rapid phase-down, suggesting that coal will remain a stabilising component of China’s energy mix during the transition.
In the hydrocarbons sector, China aims to maintain annual crude oil production of around 200 million tonnes while continuing to expand domestic natural-gas output and strategic petroleum reserves. The plan also references early preparatory work on the Power of Siberia 2, a proposed pipeline that would significantly increase Russian gas exports to China. Negotiations between Beijing and Moscow have continued for several years, primarily over pricing terms. Meanwhile, China signalled continued support for coal-to-liquids technologies, which convert coal into synthetic fuels and petrochemical feedstocks, reflecting efforts to diversify energy supply sources.
Market analysts say the policy blueprint underscores China’s intention to balance industrial competitiveness, energy security and climate commitments. As the world’s largest commodity consumer, China’s policy direction will likely shape global demand trends for metals, energy resources and critical minerals over the coming decade.
