Top global institutional investors and leading MENA companies see best three-year returns in the UAE and Egypt; are tipping health care and consumer staple plays for 2016; and think corporate earnings will fall 10-20% this year as growth slows amid slumping oil prices
Global institutional investors and major listed companies from across the Middle East and North Africa are evenly split on the outlook for MENA equities over the medium term: Exactly 50% said “Yes” and 50% replied “No” when asked whether they expect MENA equities to outperform their emerging market peers over the coming three years.
That is just one of the key findings coming out of the first annual EFG Hermes MENA Consensus, a unique real-time survey of 455 institutional investors from around the world and senior executives from 117 major listed MENA companies who gathered yesterday in Dubai for day one of the 12th Annual EFG Hermes One On One, which wraps up tomorrow.
The live survey was a feature of a headline debate on whether “MENA can escape the boom and bust cycle of oil.” The debate featured Hedi Ben Mlouka (CEO of Duet MENA) and BishoyAzmi (CEO, Al-Shafar General Contracting) arguing in the affirmative, while Ashraf El Ansary (CIO, Exante) and Catherine Bolgar (former managing editor of Wall Street Journal Europe) argued an escape was unlikely.
“This year will be testing for global and MENA markets,” said Simon Kitchen, head of Macro Strategy at EFG Hermes and moderator of yesterday’s debate. “Liquidity is tightening; volatility is rising across asset classes. Commodity prices are collapsing, China is re-balancing and energy markets are undergoing a fundamental change. Meanwhile, populists are gaining ground in both the U.S. and Europe.
