In a harrowing new forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), scientists warn that the planet is set to endure temperatures hovering near historic highs through 2029—raising alarm bells about the escalating impacts on economies, societies, and the fragile scaffolding of sustainable development.
Between 2025 and 2029, global near-surface temperatures are projected to soar between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900). That’s dangerously close to the 1.5°C tipping point that climate scientists have long warned could trigger irreversible damage to ecosystems and unleash cascading extreme weather events.
The odds are overwhelming. The report estimates a staggering 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will break 2024’s record as the hottest year ever documented. Even more chilling: there’s an 86% likelihood that at least one year will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, breaching a boundary long considered the red line of planetary safety.
But the peril doesn’t stop there. The WMO now says there’s a 70% probability that the five-year average for 2025–2029 will stay above 1.5°C, a sharp jump from last year’s 47% estimate—and more than double the 32% chance predicted just two years ago. The heat is accelerating, and so are the risks.
“This report offers no room for complacency,” warned Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. “After ten consecutive years of record-breaking heat, the outlook ahead is equally grim. Every decimal point of warming intensifies the damage: scorching heat waves, deluges, crippling droughts, vanishing ice, rising seas—the list goes on.”
Indeed, the WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 report confirmed what many feared: 2024 likely marked the first full calendar year with a global temperature exceeding 1.5°C. It was the hottest year in the 175-year record, setting a new precedent that could soon become the norm.
Under the Paris Agreement, the world’s nations pledged to cap long-term global temperature rise well below 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C as the ideal limit. But the scientific consensus is clear: crossing that line means opening the floodgates to far more devastating climate shocks.
As anticipation builds for COP30, the upcoming UN climate conference, global leaders will be expected to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—ambitious climate action plans that may well determine the fate of future generations.
With each passing year pushing the mercury higher, the urgency is no longer theoretical. It’s here. And the window to act decisively is closing fast.
