By Mahmoud Ali
Dr Ayman Shabana: the diversion of the river’s flow won’t affect Egypt’s quota of Nile water!
The Egyptian-Ethiopian negotiations over the Renaissance Dam has undergone a significant development recently; amid the tensions that overshadowed most of the previous meetings, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have signed The Declaration of Principles to settle their disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt has also decided to submit the matter to a technical study that was assigned to 2 French engineering consulting firms.
The foreign ministers of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia signed, last week, in Khartoum, an Agreement to end their long-running disputes over the GERD, which Ethiopia is buildin on The Blue Nile; the major tributary of the Nile. The Agreement provided respecting The Declaration of Principles signed by the presidents of the three countries in Khartoum last March; and boosting the technical studies by appointing a new French company, Arterlia, to conduct the technical studies on GERD alongside the other French company, BRL Group. Moreover, the Agreement stresses Ethiopia’s commitment to article 5 of The Declaration of Principles; mainly to apply the results of the technical studies during the dam’s storage reservoir first filling, and to the operation policies.
The Agreement also stipulates forming a committee of technical experts to examine the possibility of increasing the number of GERD gates as suggested by Egypt. If the committee concludes that this suggestion is essential, then it will be carried out to maintain Egypt’s water security. The Agreement has included an invitation by Ethiopia to media specialists, members of parliament, people’s diplomacy and technicians from Sudan and Egypt to carry out an inspection visit to GERD, in the framework of follow-up and transparency.
The latest rounds of the meetings over GERD were accompanied by some rumors spread by the media to sabotage the negotiations; as some of the Egyptian media circulated a statement by the Ethiopian Foreign Minister in which he, allegedly, said that Egypt cannot go on a war against Ethiopia. Such statement was denied by Counselor Ahmed Abu Zeid, Egypt MFA Spokesman, who confirmed that it is completely and utterly untrue; that it was wrongly translated; and that the media are infiltrated by elements that work toward undermining the Egyptian government’s efforts relevant to such profile.
On his part, Dr.Ayman Shabana, Professor of Political Science at the Institute of African Studies, said that the “Khartoum Document” signed by Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia last week over GERD is but a confirmation of The Declaration of Principles; as it ensures stressing Ethiopia’s commitment to not fill the Dam except after the two French consulting companies submit their studies on the impact of the Dam on Sudan and Egypt.
To answer the question about the purpose of the negotiations, Shabana stated that he has no trust in the Ethiopian negotiator because he keeps stalling; and thus floating negotiations and impeding reaching a settlement, while work on GERD is carried out at a fast pace. He confirmed that in case the next round of talks fails, Egypt will inevitably resort to the internationalization of the issue by bringing it before the Security Council and communicating to the international community the graveness of the genocide Ethiopia is carrying out against the Egyptians by depriving them of their right in water.
He stressed the need to form an Egyptian lobby consisting of law professors and experts on water, dams, and African affairs to tour the world and explain the political, economic, social, and environmental risks of this issue on Egypt; assuring that all diplomatic and public relations with all countries must be utilised to project the just case of Egypt.
Regarding the diversion of the flow of the Nile River to run through GERD, Shabana highlighted that the flow of the river was already diverted in May 2013; so that the GERD would be constructed without any hindrances, and the diversion announced recently was in fact redirecting the river to its natural course. He stated that such a step is not part of the dam’s storage reservoir filling; because the river will be flowing through its natural course as before, and the portions of the downstream states are not cut.
Shabana confirmed that negotiations over GERD, focus currently on storage capacity of the dam and setting the period required to fill it; adding that Egypt demands reducing the storage capacity and increasing the filling period to 10 years, while Ethiopia plans a 5-year filling period which represents an actual harm on Egypt’s quota of water.
As for Ethiopia’s political exploitation of GERD, Shabana confirmed that nothing is suspicious about this; for this dam is primarily intended to be a political pressure. He confirmed, however, that Egypt has a lot of pressure cards that would block any political purpose of the US or Ethiopia behind constructing the Dam. He pointed out that Egypt has political alliances with powers; like Russia and China, which refuse to undermine Egypt’s security, especially after the state of insecurity and instability that the region has undergone.
On the other hand, Dr.Amany Al-Tawil, African Program Director at Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), said that the Khartoum Document on GERD signed by Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia is not an answer to the points of concern and fear raised so far by experts on water and dams. She also stated that the safety factor of the dam and its impacts on the downstream countries are still unclear.
She added that the Dutch consultancy firm decided not to take part in the studies because it concluded after conducting technical studies that the GERD is built on a hill that does not fit this use that may lead to its potential collapse. She added that Ethiopia has obstinately refused the studies and temporized till the firm withdrew from the negotiations on GERD.
Al-Tawil continued: “the safety factor of the dam is unknown, and it threatens human security in both Egypt and Sudan”; pointing out that the GERD is built on a geological fault where we do not how much the construction of the Dam can affect it or what are the repercussions of this on the Horn of Africa. She confirmed that it is estimated that East Africa could be separated from the rest of the continent as a result of constructing the Dam on a geological fault.
As for the ongoing negotiations and the ministers of foreign affairs and irrigation confirming Ethiopia’s commitment to not filling the dam till the consulting firms conclude the studies, Al-Tawil pointed out that the firms will be conducting their studies on the environmental and technical impacts but not the safety factor of the dam. She called on internationalizing the issue soon by bringing it before international courts; and she highlighted the factor of time that Ethiopia is using to impose a “fait accompli”, assuring that Egypt has so many pressure cards to use against Ethiopia that are currently not publicised, yet in due time, can be used to resolve this issue.
