Egypt’s economy has posted its fastest quarterly growth in three years, with a real GDP expansion of 4.77% in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2024/2025. This impressive growth, reported by the Ministry of Planning, marks a substantial increase from the 2.2% growth recorded in the same quarter last year, bringing the average growth for the first nine months of the fiscal year to 4.2%.
This robust performance underscores Egypt’s economic resilience amid global uncertainties, driven by significant gains in non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications. The Planning Minister, Rania Al-Mashat, highlighted the success of Egypt’s reform program in fostering macroeconomic stability and empowering the private sector.
A notable highlight of this economic surge is the remarkable growth in private investment, which soared by 24.2% year-on-year in constant prices. This marks the third consecutive quarter where private investment has outpaced public investment, now accounting for nearly 62.8% of total implemented investments. Despite a substantial 45.6% contraction in public investment, which negatively impacted overall investment contributions to growth by about 2.44 percentage points, the private sector’s dynamism has been a crucial driver of economic recovery.
Exports have also played a pivotal role, with a 54.4% increase compared to an 18.7% rise in imports, contributing an impressive 2.7 percentage points to overall growth. This export-driven momentum has been buoyed by strong performances in key sectors such as motor vehicles, garments, beverages, paper, and textiles, which saw non-oil manufacturing rebound by 16% after last year’s 4% contraction.
Tourism has surged with a 23% increase, driven by higher visitor numbers, while telecommunications experienced robust growth of 14.7%. However, not all sectors shared in the prosperity. The Suez Canal saw a 23% decline in activity due to geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes, though this was an improvement over last year’s 51.6% slump. The extractive sector also faced challenges, impacted by decreased oil and gas production.
High-frequency indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index, suggest that private-sector activity remained resilient in early 2025, with March data holding near neutral territory despite modest declines.
Looking ahead, Egypt’s parliament has approved an ambitious economic and social development plan that projects a growth target of 4.5% for the 2025/2026 year. This strategy focuses on enhancing the governance of public spending and expanding private-sector participation.
While challenges remain, including potential fallout from geopolitical tensions such as the recent conflict between Israel and Iran, the Egyptian government remains optimistic. The global market impacts have been contained so far, reinforcing confidence in the country’s growth targets.
