Morocco’s energy transition is entering a critical juncture as the government moves forward with plans for a 0.5 billion cubic meter/year LNG terminal at the Nador West Med port, raising fresh concerns among analysts over fossil fuel dependency and the pace of domestic renewable energy deployment.
According to documents released by the Ministry of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development (MTEDD), the facility—slated to directly supply a 1.2 GW gas-fired power station—will connect to the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline (GME) and a new spur linking it to the port of Mohammedia, marking the first tangible step in Morocco’s ambitious gas roadmap.
MTEDD defends the project as essential to consolidating energy independence, supporting industrial decarbonization, and enabling the greater integration of renewables by using gas as a transitional fuel—particularly as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) loom over export-driven economies like Morocco.
“Gas, when used correctly, can provide the reliability that solar and wind cannot yet offer on their own,” stated Rachid El-Fassi, a senior advisor at Morocco’s Renewable Energy Agency (MASEN). “But it must be part of a diversified strategy—not the centerpiece.”
However, Ana-Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), cautioned that the terminal risks locking the country into a volatile fossil fuel import dependency, which could undermine Morocco’s 2030 target of generating 52% of electricity capacity from renewables.
“The scale of Morocco’s planned gas consumption increase—from 1 bcm to 8 bcm by 2027—is deeply concerning from a climate perspective,” she told Gas Outlook, adding that rising LNG imports may marginalize investment in solar, wind, and green hydrogen.
The timing of Morocco’s LNG expansion aligns with a global glut of LNG capacity, with over 190 million tonnes per annum currently under construction. Analysts predict downward pressure on prices if geopolitical tensions ease and Russian gas returns to Europe, which could benefit emerging buyers like Morocco.
“With LNG capacity potentially exceeding 225 mtpa by the end of the decade, importers like Morocco will likely secure better terms and pricing,” said Dr. Lars Hoffmann, energy economist at Eurasia Energy Institute, referencing the Arctic 2 and Mozambique LNG mega-projects.
Morocco’s energy ministry is reportedly in discussions with several global LNG suppliers, including Shell, to explore direct delivery contracts, as confirmed by a 2023 12-year deal signed for 0.5 bcm/year. While Shell has declined to confirm involvement in the new terminal, sources suggest negotiations are ongoing.
The Nador terminal may rely on either a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) or an FSU with onshore regasification. However, Europe’s post-Ukraine scramble to replace Russian gas has caused global FSRU shortages.
“Most FSRUs are already deployed in Europe, and new builds may not be ready before 2028–2029,” a senior LNG infrastructure consultant told MEO. “Morocco could look into converting older LNG carriers, but many have already been scrapped.”
Nonetheless, with LNG import demand cooling in Germany and parts of Western Europe, Morocco may benefit from a release of previously booked FSRUs, he added.
Since 2022, Morocco has imported regasified LNG from Spain, using the Maghreb-Europe Pipeline in reverse flow. In 2024 alone, Morocco received 9.7 TWh of gas—27% of Spain’s total LNG exports—underscoring Rabat’s rising appetite.
This arrangement emerged after Algeria halted direct gas flows to Morocco in 2021 amid escalating diplomatic tensions. While the new terminal is seen as a path to bypass geopolitical risk, critics warn it could inadvertently expose Morocco to new dependencies in global LNG trade.
“It’s a trade-off: less regional risk, more market volatility,” explained Karima Bencheikh, senior fellow at the Casablanca Institute for Energy Policy.
MTEDD’s long-term roadmap includes two additional LNG terminals post-2030 along the Atlantic coast, and a strategic vision to link Morocco to Senegalese and Mauritanian gas networks through the proposed Gazoduc Afrique Atlantique (GAA).
In parallel, Morocco remains committed to its green hydrogen program, a key pillar of its COP27-era climate commitments. Analysts say maintaining this parallel track is critical if Morocco is to honor its green credentials while pursuing energy sovereignty.
As Rabat navigates rising industrial demand, geopolitical rifts, and global energy realignment, the Nador LNG terminal presents both a strategic lifeline and a strategic risk.
“Morocco must walk a fine line: using LNG as a bridge, not a crutch,” said IEEFA’s Jaller-Makarewicz. “The danger is that short-term solutions may entrench long-term vulnerabilities.”
Whether this gamble pays off—or sets back Africa’s most ambitious green energy experiment—will unfold in the critical years to come.
